CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. logo CBL - CBL & Associates Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 12
SELL 9
STRONG
SELL
0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 63.8% below fair value
Current Price $51.57
Bear Case $114.34 121.7% upside ($114.34 - $51.57) / $51.57 = 121.7% $9.73 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $142.33 176.0% upside ($142.33 - $51.57) / $51.57 = 176.0% $9.73 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $170.32 230.3% upside ($170.32 - $51.57) / $51.57 = 230.3% $9.73 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
9.73$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($9.73) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 5.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $9.73 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $142.33 per share. Dividend yield: 3.3%. DDM cross-check: $31.68.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $31.68 (78% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify