Colony Bankcorp, Inc. logo CBAN - Colony Bankcorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 26.8% below fair value
Current Price $19.80
Bear Case $15.18 23.4% downside ($15.18 - $19.80) / $19.80 = -23.4% ROTCE 7.0% → 0.89x TBV
Fair Value $27.06 36.7% upside ($27.06 - $19.80) / $19.80 = 36.7% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.58x TBV
Bull Case $34.19 72.7% upside ($34.19 - $19.80) / $19.80 = 72.7% ROTCE 10.7% → 2.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.3%
7.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.3%) vs. cost of equity (7.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.16x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 9.3% vs. 7.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.58x on $17.10 tangible book, implying $27.06 per share. DDM cross-check: $9.54.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $9.54 (65% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly