Colony Bankcorp, Inc. logo CBAN - Colony Bankcorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.9% below fair value
Current Price $22.21
Bear Case $12.82 42.3% downside ($12.82 - $22.21) / $22.21 = -42.3% ROTCE 7.0% → 0.89x TBV
Fair Value $22.86 2.9% upside ($22.86 - $22.21) / $22.21 = 2.9% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.59x TBV
Bull Case $28.89 30.1% upside ($28.89 - $22.21) / $22.21 = 30.1% ROTCE 10.7% → 2.01x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.3%
7.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.3%) vs. cost of equity (7.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.54x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 9.3% vs. 7.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.59x on $14.38 tangible book, implying $22.86 per share. DDM cross-check: $9.52.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $9.52 (58% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly