Chubb Limited logo CB - Chubb Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 22
HOLD 18
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $354.64 DETAILS
HIGH: $387.00
LOW: $301.00
MEDIAN: $359.00
CONSENSUS: $354.64
UPSIDE: 0.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 26.4% below fair value
Current Price $353.00
Bear Case $355.89 0.8% upside ($355.89 - $353.00) / $353.00 = 0.8% ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $479.60 35.9% upside ($479.60 - $353.00) / $353.00 = 35.9% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $623.48 76.6% upside ($623.48 - $353.00) / $353.00 = 76.6% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

30.0%
6.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (30.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.97x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 30.0% vs. 6.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $88.97 tangible book, implying $479.60 per share. DDM cross-check: $184.81.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (43 analysts) $354.64
Analyst Range $301.00 – $387.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 35%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $184.81 (61% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $354.64 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 35% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly