Cass Information Systems, Inc. logo CASS - Cass Information Systems, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $50.00
UPSIDE: 9.60%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 11.2% above fair value
Current Price $45.62
Bear Case $32.81 28.1% downside ($32.81 - $45.62) / $45.62 = -28.1% $2.73 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $41.01 10.1% downside ($41.01 - $45.62) / $45.62 = -10.1% $2.73 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $49.21 7.9% upside ($49.21 - $45.62) / $45.62 = 7.9% $2.73 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.73$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.73, the base-case value is $41.01 per share. DDM cross-check: $24.76.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $24.76 (below our primary estimate by 40%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples