Cass Information Systems, Inc. logo CASS - Cass Information Systems, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $58.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $61.00
LOW: $56.00
MEDIAN: $58.50
CONSENSUS: $58.50
UPSIDE: 5.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 42.3% above fair value
Current Price $55.70
Bear Case $31.32 43.8% downside ($31.32 - $55.70) / $55.70 = -43.8% $2.61 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $39.15 29.7% downside ($39.15 - $55.70) / $55.70 = -29.7% $2.61 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $46.98 15.7% downside ($46.98 - $55.70) / $55.70 = -15.7% $2.61 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.61$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.61, the base-case value is $39.15 per share. DDM cross-check: $24.84.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $24.84 (below our primary estimate by 37%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples