Cass Information Systems, Inc. logo CASS - Cass Information Systems, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $56.00
LOW: $52.00
MEDIAN: $54.00
CONSENSUS: $54.00
UPSIDE: 1.89%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 29.2% above fair value
Current Price $53.00
Bear Case $32.81 38.1% downside ($32.81 - $53.00) / $53.00 = -38.1% $2.73 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $41.01 22.6% downside ($41.01 - $53.00) / $53.00 = -22.6% $2.73 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $49.21 7.1% downside ($49.21 - $53.00) / $53.00 = -7.1% $2.73 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.73$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.73, the base-case value is $41.01 per share. DDM cross-check: $24.76.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $24.76 (below our primary estimate by 40%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples