Cars.com Inc. logo CARS - Cars.com Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $13.00
MEDIAN: $18.75
CONSENSUS: $18.88
UPSIDE: 68.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 38.5% below fair value
Current Price $11.20
Bear Case $18.20 62.5% upside ($18.20 - $11.20) / $11.20 = 62.5% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $18.20 62.5% upside ($18.20 - $11.20) / $11.20 = 62.5% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $19.88 77.5% upside ($19.88 - $11.20) / $11.20 = 77.5% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 28%
Implied Market Multiple 8.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) -1.6% vs our 3.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.88 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.20 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 156% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions