Cars.com Inc. logo CARS - Cars.com Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $13.00
MEDIAN: $18.75
CONSENSUS: $18.88
UPSIDE: 59.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 53.3% below fair value
Current Price $11.80
Bear Case $25.28 114.2% upside ($25.28 - $11.80) / $11.80 = 114.2% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $25.28 114.2% upside ($25.28 - $11.80) / $11.80 = 114.2% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $27.40 132.1% upside ($27.40 - $11.80) / $11.80 = 132.1% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 28%
Implied Market Multiple 6.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) -4.9% vs our 3.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $25.28 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $18.88
Analyst Range $13.00 – $25.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 34%

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 156% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.88 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions