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Inactive Ticker CALB is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 237.9% above fair value
Current Price $25.09
Bear Case $5.20 79.3% downside ($5.20 - $25.09) / $25.09 = -79.3% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $7.43 70.4% downside ($7.43 - $25.09) / $25.09 = -70.4% ROTCE 3.1% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $9.65 61.5% downside ($9.65 - $25.09) / $25.09 = -61.5% ROTCE 3.6% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

3.1%
9.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (3.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.66x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 3.1% vs. 9.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $15.15 tangible book, implying $7.43 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (3.1%) is below the minimum investors require (9.5%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly