Cardinal Health, Inc. logo CAH - Cardinal Health, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 15
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $273.22 DETAILS
HIGH: $292.00
LOW: $250.00
MEDIAN: $275.00
CONSENSUS: $273.22
UPSIDE: 16.49%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 102.4% above fair value
Current Price $234.55
Bear Case $92.70 60.5% downside ($92.70 - $234.55) / $234.55 = -60.5% $7.23 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $115.88 50.6% downside ($115.88 - $234.55) / $234.55 = -50.6% $7.23 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $139.06 40.7% downside ($139.06 - $234.55) / $234.55 = -40.7% $7.23 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
7.23$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 32.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.23, the base-case value is $115.88 per share. DDM cross-check: $29.62.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (33 analysts) $273.22
Analyst Range $250.00 – $292.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 58%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $29.62 (below our primary estimate by 74%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $273.22 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples