CACI International Inc logo CACI - CACI International Inc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $725.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $800.00
LOW: $550.00
MEDIAN: $776.00
CONSENSUS: $725.50
UPSIDE: 44.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 27.8% above fair value
Current Price $501.35
Bear Case $238.55 52.4% downside ($238.55 - $501.35) / $501.35 = -52.4% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $392.18 21.8% downside ($392.18 - $501.35) / $501.35 = -21.8% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $543.16 8.3% upside ($543.16 - $501.35) / $501.35 = 8.3% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 32.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $725.50 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $392.18 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $725.50 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions