CACI International Inc logo CACI - CACI International Inc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 9
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $730.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $892.00
LOW: $550.00
MEDIAN: $715.00
CONSENSUS: $730.86
UPSIDE: 18.97%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 0.5% below fair value
Current Price $614.31
Bear Case $401.77 34.6% downside ($401.77 - $614.31) / $614.31 = -34.6% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $617.45 0.5% upside ($617.45 - $614.31) / $614.31 = 0.5% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $828.29 34.8% upside ($828.29 - $614.31) / $614.31 = 34.8% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 21.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.8% vs our 9.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $617.45 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (30 analysts) $730.86
Analyst Range $550.00 – $892.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 16%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions