CACI International Inc logo CACI - CACI International Inc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $682.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $800.00
LOW: $510.00
MEDIAN: $765.00
CONSENSUS: $682.40
UPSIDE: 40.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 27.5% above fair value
Current Price $486.45
Bear Case $232.00 52.3% downside ($232.00 - $486.45) / $486.45 = -52.3% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $381.40 21.6% downside ($381.40 - $486.45) / $486.45 = -21.6% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $528.24 8.6% upside ($528.24 - $486.45) / $486.45 = 8.6% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 32.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.3% vs our 10.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $682.40 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $381.40 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $682.40 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions