CACI International Inc logo CACI - CACI International Inc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $722.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $892.00
LOW: $550.00
MEDIAN: $707.50
CONSENSUS: $722.67
UPSIDE: 14.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 2.2% above fair value
Current Price $631.24
Bear Case $401.93 36.3% downside ($401.93 - $631.24) / $631.24 = -36.3% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $617.68 2.1% downside ($617.68 - $631.24) / $631.24 = -2.1% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $828.60 31.3% upside ($828.60 - $631.24) / $631.24 = 31.3% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 21.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.1% vs our 9.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $617.68 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $722.67
Analyst Range $550.00 – $892.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 15%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions