Camden National Corporation logo CAC - Camden National Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $53.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $56.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $53.00
CONSENSUS: $53.00
UPSIDE: 7.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 33.6% below fair value
Current Price $49.32
Bear Case $47.42 3.8% downside ($47.42 - $49.32) / $49.32 = -3.8% ROTCE 9.7% → 1.71x TBV
Fair Value $74.27 50.6% upside ($74.27 - $49.32) / $49.32 = 50.6% ROTCE 13.0% → 2.68x TBV
Bull Case $90.39 83.3% upside ($90.39 - $49.32) / $49.32 = 83.3% ROTCE 14.9% → 3.26x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.0%
7.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.0%) vs. cost of equity (7.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.66x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $53.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.27 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $32.19 (60% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $53.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 50% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly