C - Citigroup Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$149.60
DETAILS
HIGH:
$165.00
LOW:
$132.00
MEDIAN:
$148.00
CONSENSUS:
$149.60
UPSIDE:
6.03%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
7.6%
10.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (7.6%) vs. cost of equity (10.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.28x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $149.60 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $95.07 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (7.6%) is below the minimum investors require (10.3%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $35.35 (54% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $149.60 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly