Kanzhun Limited logo BZ - Kanzhun Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.71 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $15.00
MEDIAN: $22.75
CONSENSUS: $21.71
UPSIDE: 40.79%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 65.3% below fair value
Current Price $15.42
Bear Case $29.03 88.2% upside ($29.03 - $15.42) / $15.42 = 88.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $44.48 188.4% upside ($44.48 - $15.42) / $15.42 = 188.4% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $62.51 305.4% upside ($62.51 - $15.42) / $15.42 = 305.4% 22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (17% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 7.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) -4.8% vs our 16.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.71 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.48 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.71 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 131% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1477 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions