BXP, Inc. logo BXP - BXP, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 25
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $66.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $72.00
LOW: $61.00
MEDIAN: $66.50
CONSENSUS: $66.10
DOWNSIDE: 1.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.4% below fair value
Current Price $66.82
Bear Case $61.24 8.4% downside ($61.24 - $66.82) / $66.82 = -8.4% $7.42 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $78.06 16.8% upside ($78.06 - $66.82) / $66.82 = 16.8% $7.42 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $94.89 42.0% upside ($94.89 - $66.82) / $66.82 = 42.0% $7.42 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
7.42$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($7.42) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 9.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $66.10 from 43 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $78.06 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $52.18 (37% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $66.10 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify