BXP, Inc. logo BXP - BXP, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 23
HOLD 18
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $67.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $61.00
MEDIAN: $65.00
CONSENSUS: $67.00
UPSIDE: 11.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 24.1% below fair value
Current Price $60.29
Bear Case $62.40 3.5% upside ($62.40 - $60.29) / $60.29 = 3.5% $7.42 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $79.43 31.7% upside ($79.43 - $60.29) / $60.29 = 31.7% $7.42 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $96.45 60.0% upside ($96.45 - $60.29) / $60.29 = 60.0% $7.42 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
7.42$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($7.42) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $67.00 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $79.43 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.1% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $57.40 (32% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $67.00 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify