BlueLinx Holdings Inc. logo BXC - BlueLinx Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $84.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $84.00
LOW: $84.00
MEDIAN: $84.00
CONSENSUS: $84.00
UPSIDE: 1.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 44.8% below fair value
Current Price $83.02
Bear Case $120.35 45.0% upside ($120.35 - $83.02) / $83.02 = 45.0% $10.03 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $150.44 81.2% upside ($150.44 - $83.02) / $83.02 = 81.2% $10.03 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $180.53 117.5% upside ($180.53 - $83.02) / $83.02 = 117.5% $10.03 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
10.03$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $10.03, the base-case value is $150.44 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $84.00
Analyst Range $84.00 – $84.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 79%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 36239%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 1812% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $84.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 79% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples