BX - Blackstone Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$149.86
DETAILS
HIGH:
$184.00
LOW:
$119.00
MEDIAN:
$150.00
CONSENSUS:
$149.86
UPSIDE:
20.31%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
45.4%
13.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (45.4%) vs. cost of equity (13.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
14.69x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $149.86 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $110.84 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $44.93 (52% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $149.86 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly