BX - Blackstone Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$143.10
DETAILS
HIGH:
$184.00
LOW:
$122.00
MEDIAN:
$137.50
CONSENSUS:
$143.10
UPSIDE:
28.98%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
45.4%
13.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (45.4%) vs. cost of equity (13.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
13.16x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 45.4% vs. 13.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.33x on $8.43 tangible book, implying $94.12 per share. DDM cross-check: $67.83.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$143.10
Analyst Range
$122.00 – $184.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $67.83 (28% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $143.10 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly