BX - Blackstone Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$145.89
DETAILS
HIGH:
$184.00
LOW:
$127.00
MEDIAN:
$140.00
CONSENSUS:
$145.89
UPSIDE:
2.48%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
45.4%
12.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (45.4%) vs. cost of equity (12.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
16.88x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 45.4% vs. 12.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.39x on $8.43 tangible book, implying $94.12 per share. DDM cross-check: $69.78.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$145.89
Analyst Range
$127.00 – $184.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $69.78 (26% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $145.89 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly