Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. logo BWMN - Bowman Consulting Group Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $58.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $58.00
LOW: $58.00
MEDIAN: $58.00
CONSENSUS: $58.00
UPSIDE: 113.31%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.8% below fair value
Current Price $27.19
Bear Case $17.88 34.2% downside ($17.88 - $27.19) / $27.19 = -34.2% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $38.19 40.5% upside ($38.19 - $27.19) / $27.19 = 40.5% 19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $63.09 132.0% upside ($63.09 - $27.19) / $27.19 = 132.0% 25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

19.2%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 41%
Implied Market Multiple 31.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 17.1% vs our 19.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $58.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.19 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 153% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $58.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions