Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. logo BWB - Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $23.00
MEDIAN: $23.50
CONSENSUS: $23.50
UPSIDE: 25.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.3% below fair value
Current Price $18.72
Bear Case $15.02 19.8% downside ($15.02 - $18.72) / $18.72 = -19.8% ROTCE 6.9% → 0.84x TBV
Fair Value $26.84 43.4% upside ($26.84 - $18.72) / $18.72 = 43.4% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.50x TBV
Bull Case $33.93 81.3% upside ($33.93 - $18.72) / $18.72 = 81.3% ROTCE 10.6% → 1.90x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.3%
7.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.3%) vs. cost of equity (7.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.05x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 9.3% vs. 7.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.50x on $17.87 tangible book, implying $26.84 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly