Bioventus Inc. logo BVS - Bioventus Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $14.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $15.00
LOW: $13.00
MEDIAN: $14.00
CONSENSUS: $14.00
UPSIDE: 12.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.8% below fair value
Current Price $12.43
Bear Case $12.72 2.3% upside ($12.72 - $12.43) / $12.43 = 2.3% $0.91 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $15.90 27.9% upside ($15.90 - $12.43) / $12.43 = 27.9% $0.91 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $19.09 53.6% upside ($19.09 - $12.43) / $12.43 = 53.6% $0.91 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.1x
0.91$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.90 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 175%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples