Bioventus Inc. logo BVS - Bioventus Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $19.00
LOW: $18.00
MEDIAN: $18.00
CONSENSUS: $18.33
UPSIDE: 34.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 129.0% above fair value
Current Price $13.65
Bear Case $4.77 65.1% downside ($4.77 - $13.65) / $13.65 = -65.1% $0.33 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $5.96 56.3% downside ($5.96 - $13.65) / $13.65 = -56.3% $0.33 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $7.15 47.6% downside ($7.15 - $13.65) / $13.65 = -47.6% $0.33 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.1x
0.33$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 41.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.33, the base-case value is $5.96 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $18.33
Analyst Range $18.00 – $19.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 67%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $18.33 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples