BrightView Holdings, Inc. logo BV - BrightView Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $14.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $17.00
LOW: $12.50
MEDIAN: $15.00
CONSENSUS: $14.88
UPSIDE: 32.62%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 31.2% above fair value
Current Price $11.22
Bear Case $6.84 39.0% downside ($6.84 - $11.22) / $11.22 = -39.0% $0.57 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $8.55 23.8% downside ($8.55 - $11.22) / $11.22 = -23.8% $0.57 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $10.26 8.6% downside ($10.26 - $11.22) / $11.22 = -8.6% $0.57 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.57$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.57, the base-case value is $8.55 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $14.88
Analyst Range $12.50 – $17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 43%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $14.88 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples