BUSE - First Busey Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$31.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$35.00
LOW:
$28.00
MEDIAN:
$31.50
CONSENSUS:
$31.50
UPSIDE:
2.74%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
6.8%
8.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (6.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.3x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 6.8% vs. 8.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.67x on $23.51 tangible book, implying $26.16 per share. DDM cross-check: $17.91.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$31.50
Analyst Range
$28.00 – $35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
17%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (6.8%) is below the minimum investors require (8.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $17.91 (32% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly