Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares logo BULL - Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares

Price: -- -- | PRICE TARGET: $12.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $15.00
LOW: $9.00
MEDIAN: $12.00
CONSENSUS: $12.00
UPSIDE: 103.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 80.3% below fair value
Current Price $5.90
Bear Case $20.30 244.0% upside ($20.30 - $5.90) / $5.90 = 244.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $29.88 406.4% upside ($29.88 - $5.90) / $5.90 = 406.4% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $40.22 581.7% upside ($40.22 - $5.90) / $5.90 = 581.7% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 4.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) -12.7% vs our 13.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $29.88 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 177% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions