Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV logo BUD - Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 26
HOLD 16
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $89.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $100.00
LOW: $84.50
MEDIAN: $85.00
CONSENSUS: $89.83
UPSIDE: 7.97%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.2% below fair value
Current Price $83.20
Bear Case $87.19 4.8% upside ($87.19 - $83.20) / $83.20 = 4.8% $5.09 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $101.72 22.3% upside ($101.72 - $83.20) / $83.20 = 22.3% $5.09 × 21x P/E
Bull Case $116.25 39.7% upside ($116.25 - $83.20) / $83.20 = 39.7% $5.09 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.0x
5.09$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $89.83 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $101.72 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 47%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 97% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples