Peabody Energy Corporation logo BTU - Peabody Energy Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 10
HOLD 16
SELL 7
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $36.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $36.50
LOW: $36.50
MEDIAN: $36.50
CONSENSUS: $36.50
UPSIDE: 48.68%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Other Commodity Producers 70% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 41.1% below fair value
Current Price $24.55
Bear Case $23.56 4.0% downside ($23.56 - $24.55) / $24.55 = -4.0% FCF −30% × 8x
Fair Value $41.67 69.7% upside ($41.67 - $24.55) / $24.55 = 69.7% Current FCF × 10x
Bull Case $64.73 163.7% upside ($64.73 - $24.55) / $24.55 = 163.7% FCF +30% × 12x

Adjust Assumptions

0.0%
10.0x

Key Value Driver

Commodity price outlook and production volume

Implied Market Multiple 5.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $36.50 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.67 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Demand trends (construction, electric vehicles, food production) matter more than supply headlines. Focus on who's buying the commodity and why.
⚠ Mines and reserves eventually run out. Standard models undercount this risk — the company must keep finding or buying new resources just to maintain its value.

Key Risks

  • AISC vs. cash cost distinction: always use AISC for breakeven analysis
  • Single-asset companies carry significantly higher risk — widen scenario range
  • Mine permitting takes 10-20 years — growth optionality often priced in optimistically