Is BTEGF undervalued?

AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Baytex Energy Corp. as a Oil & Gas E&P business and values it using FCF at Price Deck × Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag BTEGF as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Baytex Energy Corp.'s fair value?

Fair value for BTEGF comes from a FCF at Price Deck × Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Oil & Gas E&P classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value BTEGF?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. BTEGF was classified as Oil & Gas E&P and is valued using FCF at Price Deck × Multiple, built from BTEGF's most recent reported fundamentals.

BTEGF - Baytex Energy Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 11.7% below fair value

Current Price $4.05

Bear Case $1.76 56.6% downside ($1.76 - $4.05) / $4.05 = -56.6% FCF $204M × 8x

Fair Value $4.58 13.2% upside ($4.58 - $4.05) / $4.05 = 13.2% FCF $292M × 11x

Bull Case $8.35 106.4% upside ($8.35 - $4.05) / $4.05 = 106.4% FCF $379M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 10.0x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $4.58 per share. Range: $1.76 (bear) to $8.35 (bull).

Warnings

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7030 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential