AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Baytex Energy Corp.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag BTE as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Baytex Energy Corp.'s fair value?

Fair value for BTE is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value BTE?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from BTE's most recent reported fundamentals.

BTE - Baytex Energy Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 48.5% above fair value

Current Price $5.15

Bear Case $2.17 57.9% downside ($2.17 - $5.15) / $5.15 = -57.9% FCF $125M × 8x

Fair Value $3.47 32.6% downside ($3.47 - $5.15) / $5.15 = -32.6% FCF $178M × 11x

Bull Case $5.21 1.1% upside ($5.21 - $5.15) / $5.15 = 1.1% FCF $232M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.0x

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $3.47 per share. Range: $2.17 (bear) to $5.21 (bull).

Warnings

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7245 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential