Bit Digital, Inc. logo BTBT - Bit Digital, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $3.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $3.50
LOW: $3.50
MEDIAN: $3.50
CONSENSUS: $3.50
UPSIDE: 112.12%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 68.3% below fair value
Current Price $1.65
Bear Case $3.64 120.6% upside ($3.64 - $1.65) / $1.65 = 120.6% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $5.20 215.2% upside ($5.20 - $1.65) / $1.65 = 215.2% ROTCE -11.6% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $6.76 309.7% upside ($6.76 - $1.65) / $1.65 = 309.7% ROTCE -13.4% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

-11.6%
14.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (-11.6%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.83x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of -11.6% vs. 14.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $1.98 tangible book, implying $5.20 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (-11.6%) is below the minimum investors require (14.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly