Bentley Systems, Incorporated logo BSY - Bentley Systems, Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $42.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $40.50
CONSENSUS: $40.75
UPSIDE: 29.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 26.6% below fair value
Current Price $31.40
Bear Case $26.56 15.4% downside ($26.56 - $31.40) / $31.40 = -15.4% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $42.80 36.3% upside ($42.80 - $31.40) / $31.40 = 36.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $60.56 92.9% upside ($60.56 - $31.40) / $31.40 = 92.9% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 22.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.4% vs our 14.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.75 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.80 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions