Sierra Bancorp logo BSRR - Sierra Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $44.00
CONSENSUS: $44.00
UPSIDE: 15.21%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.8% below fair value
Current Price $38.19
Bear Case $30.51 20.1% downside ($30.51 - $38.19) / $38.19 = -20.1% ROTCE 9.4% → 1.21x TBV
Fair Value $48.21 26.2% upside ($48.21 - $38.19) / $38.19 = 26.2% ROTCE 12.5% → 1.91x TBV
Bull Case $58.83 54.0% upside ($58.83 - $38.19) / $38.19 = 54.0% ROTCE 14.4% → 2.33x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.5%
8.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.48x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $48.21 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $17.61 (64% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly