BRX - Brixmor Property Group Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$32.29
DETAILS
HIGH:
$35.00
LOW:
$29.00
MEDIAN:
$34.00
CONSENSUS:
$32.29
UPSIDE:
4.70%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
19.5x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.61) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
11.8x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.29 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.32 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.29 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 58% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify