Brixmor Property Group Inc. logo BRX - Brixmor Property Group Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $29.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $32.29
UPSIDE: 4.70%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 32.0% below fair value
Current Price $30.84
Bear Case $36.26 17.6% upside ($36.26 - $30.84) / $30.84 = 17.6% $2.61 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $45.32 47.0% upside ($45.32 - $30.84) / $30.84 = 47.0% $2.61 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $54.40 76.4% upside ($54.40 - $30.84) / $30.84 = 76.4% $2.61 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
2.61$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.61) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.29 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.32 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.29 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 58% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify