Brixmor Property Group Inc. logo BRX - Brixmor Property Group Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $34.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $37.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $34.14
UPSIDE: 10.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 32.4% below fair value
Current Price $31.03
Bear Case $36.71 18.3% upside ($36.71 - $31.03) / $31.03 = 18.3% $2.61 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $45.88 47.9% upside ($45.88 - $31.03) / $31.03 = 47.9% $2.61 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $55.06 77.4% upside ($55.06 - $31.03) / $31.03 = 77.4% $2.61 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
2.61$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.61) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.14 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.88 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.14 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 49% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify