Brown & Brown, Inc. logo BRO - Brown & Brown, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 20
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $72.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $90.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $72.50
CONSENSUS: $72.50
DOWNSIDE: 1.10%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 55.3% above fair value
Current Price $73.31
Bear Case $24.68 66.3% downside ($24.68 - $73.31) / $73.31 = -66.3% ROTCE 6.3% → 0.66x TBV
Fair Value $47.20 35.6% downside ($47.20 - $73.31) / $73.31 = -35.6% ROTCE 8.4% → 1.26x TBV
Bull Case $60.72 17.2% downside ($60.72 - $73.31) / $73.31 = -17.2% ROTCE 9.7% → 1.62x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.4%
7.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.4%) vs. cost of equity (7.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.96x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.4% vs. 7.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.26x on $37.50 tangible book, implying $47.20 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (31 analysts) $72.50
Analyst Range $55.00 – $90.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 35%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $72.50 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly