Brown & Brown, Inc. logo BRO - Brown & Brown, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 11
HOLD 19
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $55.00
DOWNSIDE: 20.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 43.5% above fair value
Current Price $69.21
Bear Case $25.21 63.6% downside ($25.21 - $69.21) / $69.21 = -63.6% ROTCE 6.3% → 0.64x TBV
Fair Value $48.22 30.3% downside ($48.22 - $69.21) / $69.21 = -30.3% ROTCE 8.4% → 1.22x TBV
Bull Case $62.03 10.4% downside ($62.03 - $69.21) / $69.21 = -10.4% ROTCE 9.7% → 1.57x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.4%
7.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.4%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.87x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.00 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $48.22 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly