Brown & Brown, Inc. logo BRO - Brown & Brown, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 10
HOLD 20
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $88.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $89.00
LOW: $88.00
MEDIAN: $88.50
CONSENSUS: $88.50
UPSIDE: 53.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.8% above fair value
Current Price $57.82
Bear Case $29.11 49.6% downside ($29.11 - $57.82) / $57.82 = -49.6% ROTCE 6.3% → 0.59x TBV
Fair Value $55.68 3.7% downside ($55.68 - $57.82) / $57.82 = -3.7% ROTCE 8.4% → 1.12x TBV
Bull Case $71.63 23.9% upside ($71.63 - $57.82) / $57.82 = 23.9% ROTCE 9.7% → 1.45x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.4%
7.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.4%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.56x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $88.50 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $55.68 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $88.50 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly