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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 3739.2% above fair value
Current Price $449.29
Bear Case $4.94 98.9% downside ($4.94 - $449.29) / $449.29 = -98.9% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $11.70 97.4% downside ($11.70 - $449.29) / $449.29 = -97.4% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $18.61 95.9% downside ($18.61 - $449.29) / $449.29 = -95.9% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 482.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 52.7% vs our 11.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $11.70 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions