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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $67.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $70.00
CONSENSUS: $67.00
UPSIDE: 13.87%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 2757.6% above fair value
Current Price $58.84
Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $58.84) / $58.84 = -100.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $2.06 96.5% downside ($2.06 - $58.84) / $58.84 = -96.5% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $4.91 91.6% downside ($4.91 - $58.84) / $58.84 = -91.6% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 100.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 30.6% vs our 8.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $2.06 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (33 analysts) $67.00
Analyst Range $50.00 – $80.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 97%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $67.00 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 97% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions