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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $35.00
MEDIAN: $51.50
CONSENSUS: $50.13
UPSIDE: 7.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 148.0% above fair value
Current Price $46.68
Bear Case $7.45 84.0% downside ($7.45 - $46.68) / $46.68 = -84.0% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $18.83 59.7% downside ($18.83 - $46.68) / $46.68 = -59.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $29.23 37.4% downside ($29.23 - $46.68) / $46.68 = -37.4% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 61.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.13 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.83 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $50.13 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions