BellRing Brands, Inc. logo BRBR - BellRing Brands, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 14
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $11.00
MEDIAN: $13.50
CONSENSUS: $18.75
UPSIDE: 39.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.3% below fair value
Current Price $13.45
Bear Case $17.69 31.5% upside ($17.69 - $13.45) / $13.45 = 31.5% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $18.75 39.4% upside ($18.75 - $13.45) / $13.45 = 39.4% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $20.97 55.9% upside ($20.97 - $13.45) / $13.45 = 55.9% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (4% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 10.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 0.6% vs our 3.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.75 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.75 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions