DMC Global Inc. logo BOOM - DMC Global Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $8.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $8.50
LOW: $8.50
MEDIAN: $8.50
CONSENSUS: $8.50
UPSIDE: 28.79%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 87.3% below fair value
Current Price $6.60
Bear Case $25.92 292.7% upside ($25.92 - $6.60) / $6.60 = 292.7% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $52.02 688.1% upside ($52.02 - $6.60) / $6.60 = 688.1% 22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $85.82 1200.3% upside ($85.82 - $6.60) / $6.60 = 1200.3% 28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

21.6%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 6.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) -4.6% vs our 21.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.02 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $8.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 683% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions