Bombardier Inc. logo BOMBF - Bombardier Inc.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 89.9% below fair value
Current Price $13.04
Bear Case $105.40 708.2% upside ($105.40 - $13.04) / $13.04 = 708.2% $5.92 × 18x + net cash
Fair Value $129.09 889.9% upside ($129.09 - $13.04) / $13.04 = 889.9% $5.92 × 22x + net cash
Bull Case $152.78 1071.6% upside ($152.78 - $13.04) / $13.04 = 1071.6% $5.92 × 26x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

22.0x
5.92$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($5.92)

Implied Market Multiple 2.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $5.92 at a 22x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $129.09 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Recent profits ($9.58/share) are 62% above the mid-cycle average ($5.92). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing