BNP Paribas S.A. logo BNPQY - BNP Paribas S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.50
LOW: $44.50
MEDIAN: $44.50
CONSENSUS: $44.50
DOWNSIDE: 14.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.7% below fair value
Current Price $51.85
Bear Case $52.41 1.1% upside ($52.41 - $51.85) / $51.85 = 1.1% ROTCE 7.7% → 0.61x TBV
Fair Value $74.87 44.4% upside ($74.87 - $51.85) / $51.85 = 44.4% ROTCE 10.3% → 1.04x TBV
Bull Case $97.33 87.7% upside ($97.33 - $51.85) / $51.85 = 87.7% ROTCE 11.9% → 1.29x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

10.3%
10.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (10.3%) vs. cost of equity (10.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.86x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 10.3% vs. 10.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.04x on $60.17 tangible book, implying $74.87 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1634 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly