BNP Paribas S.A. logo BNPQY - BNP Paribas S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.50
LOW: $44.50
MEDIAN: $44.50
CONSENSUS: $44.50
DOWNSIDE: 24.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 19.5% below fair value
Current Price $58.92
Bear Case $51.27 13.0% downside ($51.27 - $58.92) / $58.92 = -13.0% ROTCE 7.7% → 0.62x TBV
Fair Value $73.24 24.3% upside ($73.24 - $58.92) / $58.92 = 24.3% ROTCE 10.3% → 1.05x TBV
Bull Case $95.21 61.6% upside ($95.21 - $58.92) / $58.92 = 61.6% ROTCE 11.9% → 1.31x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

10.3%
10.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (10.3%) vs. cost of equity (10.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.0x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 10.3% vs. 10.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.05x on $58.86 tangible book, implying $73.24 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1381 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly