Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. logo BNL - Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $24.00
CONSENSUS: $24.00
UPSIDE: 32.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.5% below fair value
Current Price $18.15
Bear Case $18.26 0.6% upside ($18.26 - $18.15) / $18.15 = 0.6% $1.37 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $21.99 21.2% upside ($21.99 - $18.15) / $18.15 = 21.2% $1.37 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $25.72 41.7% upside ($25.72 - $18.15) / $18.15 = 41.7% $1.37 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
1.37$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.37) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.37 FFO/share with a 17x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $21.99 per share. Dividend yield: 6.4%. DDM cross-check: $19.04.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $24.00
Analyst Range $21.00 – $26.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 8%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 6.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify