Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. logo BNL - Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $20.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $20.50
CONSENSUS: $20.50
UPSIDE: 0.49%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.7% below fair value
Current Price $20.40
Bear Case $18.37 10.0% downside ($18.37 - $20.40) / $20.40 = -10.0% $1.39 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $22.11 8.4% upside ($22.11 - $20.40) / $20.40 = 8.4% $1.39 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $25.86 26.8% upside ($25.86 - $20.40) / $20.40 = 26.8% $1.39 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
1.39$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.39) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 14.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.50 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.11 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.7% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify