Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. logo BNL - Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $22.50
CONSENSUS: $22.83
UPSIDE: 0.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.0% above fair value
Current Price $22.79
Bear Case $18.75 17.7% downside ($18.75 - $22.79) / $22.79 = -17.7% $1.39 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $22.57 0.9% downside ($22.57 - $22.79) / $22.79 = -0.9% $1.39 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $26.40 15.9% upside ($26.40 - $22.79) / $22.79 = 15.9% $1.39 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
1.39$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.39) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 16.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.83 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.57 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.1% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify