Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. logo BNL - Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $24.00
CONSENSUS: $23.57
UPSIDE: 11.76%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.3% below fair value
Current Price $21.09
Bear Case $18.50 12.3% downside ($18.50 - $21.09) / $21.09 = -12.3% $1.39 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $22.28 5.6% upside ($22.28 - $21.09) / $21.09 = 5.6% $1.39 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $26.06 23.6% upside ($26.06 - $21.09) / $21.09 = 23.6% $1.39 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
1.39$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.39) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.1x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.39 FFO/share with a 17x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $22.28 per share. Dividend yield: 5.5%. DDM cross-check: $19.04.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $23.57
Analyst Range $20.00 – $26.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 5%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify