Brookfield Corporation logo BN - Brookfield Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $58.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $61.00
LOW: $53.00
MEDIAN: $59.50
CONSENSUS: $58.25
UPSIDE: 37.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 65.3% above fair value
Current Price $42.37
Bear Case $17.94 57.7% downside ($17.94 - $42.37) / $42.37 = -57.7% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $25.63 39.5% downside ($25.63 - $42.37) / $42.37 = -39.5% ROTCE 2.7% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $33.31 21.4% downside ($33.31 - $42.37) / $42.37 = -21.4% ROTCE 3.1% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

2.7%
14.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (2.7%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.98x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $58.25 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.63 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (2.7%) is below the minimum investors require (14.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $58.25 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly