BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. logo BMRN - BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 28
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $89.93 DETAILS
HIGH: $120.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $95.00
CONSENSUS: $89.93
UPSIDE: 66.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 40.6% below fair value
Current Price $54.09
Bear Case $62.02 14.7% upside ($62.02 - $54.09) / $54.09 = 14.7% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $91.13 68.5% upside ($91.13 - $54.09) / $54.09 = 68.5% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $122.55 126.6% upside ($122.55 - $54.09) / $54.09 = 126.6% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 16.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $89.93 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $91.13 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 52% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions