Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S. A. logo BLX - Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S. A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 39.5% below fair value
Current Price $55.10
Bear Case $58.78 6.7% upside ($58.78 - $55.10) / $55.10 = 6.7% ROTCE 10.2% → 1.31x TBV
Fair Value $91.01 65.2% upside ($91.01 - $55.10) / $55.10 = 65.2% ROTCE 13.6% → 2.03x TBV
Bull Case $110.35 100.3% upside ($110.35 - $55.10) / $55.10 = 100.3% ROTCE 15.6% → 2.46x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.6%
8.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.23x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.6% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.03x on $44.80 tangible book, implying $91.01 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly