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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 676.9% above fair value
Current Price $69.49
Bear Case $5.50 92.1% downside ($5.50 - $69.49) / $69.49 = -92.1% $1.38 × 7x + net cash
Fair Value $8.94 87.1% downside ($8.94 - $69.49) / $69.49 = -87.1% $1.38 × 10x + net cash
Bull Case $12.38 82.2% downside ($12.38 - $69.49) / $69.49 = -82.2% $1.38 × 12x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

9.5x
1.38$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.38)

Implied Market Multiple 50.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.38 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $8.94 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 11.0x.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
⚠ Recent profits ($3.30/share) are 140% above the mid-cycle average ($1.38). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.
⚠ Price-to-book value of 11.0x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing