Baker Hughes Company logo BKR - Baker Hughes Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 30
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $72.27 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $51.00
MEDIAN: $73.00
CONSENSUS: $72.27
UPSIDE: 16.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 84.1% above fair value
Current Price $62.00
Bear Case $19.18 69.1% downside ($19.18 - $62.00) / $62.00 = -69.1% FCF $2123M × 10x
Fair Value $33.67 45.7% downside ($33.67 - $62.00) / $62.00 = -45.7% FCF $2739M × 13x
Bull Case $51.89 16.3% downside ($51.89 - $62.00) / $62.00 = -16.3% FCF $3356M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $33.67 per share. Range: $19.18 (bear) to $51.89 (bull).

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (45 analysts) $72.27
Analyst Range $51.00 – $80.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 53%

Warnings

Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $72.27 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential