Baker Hughes Company logo BKR - Baker Hughes Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 30
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $73.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $74.00
CONSENSUS: $73.20
UPSIDE: 10.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 51.2% above fair value
Current Price $66.06
Bear Case $24.79 62.5% downside ($24.79 - $66.06) / $66.06 = -62.5% FCF $1966M × 10x
Fair Value $43.69 33.9% downside ($43.69 - $66.06) / $66.06 = -33.9% FCF $2537M × 13x
Bull Case $67.45 2.1% upside ($67.45 - $66.06) / $66.06 = 2.1% FCF $3108M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $73.20 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.69 per share.

Warnings

If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -73%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $73.20 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential