Baker Hughes Company logo BKR - Baker Hughes Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 30
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $73.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $69.00
MEDIAN: $74.00
CONSENSUS: $73.67
UPSIDE: 29.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 68.4% above fair value
Current Price $56.70
Bear Case $19.18 66.2% downside ($19.18 - $56.70) / $56.70 = -66.2% FCF $2123M × 10x
Fair Value $33.67 40.6% downside ($33.67 - $56.70) / $56.70 = -40.6% FCF $2739M × 13x
Bull Case $51.89 8.5% downside ($51.89 - $56.70) / $56.70 = -8.5% FCF $3356M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $33.67 per share. Range: $19.18 (bear) to $51.89 (bull).

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (45 analysts) $73.67
Analyst Range $69.00 – $80.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 54%

Warnings

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $73.67 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential