Baker Hughes Company logo BKR - Baker Hughes Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 30
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $72.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $73.00
CONSENSUS: $72.00
UPSIDE: 25.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 32.8% above fair value
Current Price $57.56
Bear Case $24.58 57.3% downside ($24.58 - $57.56) / $57.56 = -57.3% FCF $1966M × 10x
Fair Value $43.33 24.7% downside ($43.33 - $57.56) / $57.56 = -24.7% FCF $2537M × 13x
Bull Case $66.89 16.2% upside ($66.89 - $57.56) / $57.56 = 16.2% FCF $3108M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $72.00 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.33 per share.

Warnings

Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $72.00 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential