Black Knight, Inc. logo BKI - Black Knight, Inc.

Inactive Ticker BKI is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 185.3% above fair value
Current Price $75.78
Bear Case $16.76 77.9% downside ($16.76 - $75.78) / $75.78 = -77.9% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $26.56 65.0% downside ($26.56 - $75.78) / $75.78 = -65.0% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $35.84 52.7% downside ($35.84 - $75.78) / $75.78 = -52.7% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 41.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 18.7% vs our 8.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $26.56 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 38% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions