The Buckle, Inc. logo BKE - The Buckle, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 15
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $47.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $47.00
LOW: $47.00
MEDIAN: $47.00
CONSENSUS: $47.00
UPSIDE: 15.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 34.3% below fair value
Current Price $40.77
Bear Case $49.68 21.9% upside ($49.68 - $40.77) / $40.77 = 21.9% $4.14 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $62.10 52.3% upside ($62.10 - $40.77) / $40.77 = 52.3% $4.14 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $74.52 82.8% upside ($74.52 - $40.77) / $40.77 = 82.8% $4.14 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
4.14$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.14, the base-case value is $62.10 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (20 analysts) $47.00
Analyst Range $47.00 – $47.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 32%

Warnings

The company pays out 106% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples