The Buckle, Inc. logo BKE - The Buckle, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 15
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $47.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $47.00
LOW: $47.00
MEDIAN: $47.00
CONSENSUS: $47.00
UPSIDE: 9.35%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 26.3% below fair value
Current Price $42.98
Bear Case $46.66 8.6% upside ($46.66 - $42.98) / $42.98 = 8.6% $4.14 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $58.33 35.7% upside ($58.33 - $42.98) / $42.98 = 35.7% $4.14 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $69.99 62.8% upside ($69.99 - $42.98) / $42.98 = 62.8% $4.14 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
4.14$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.33 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 106% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples