The Buckle, Inc. logo BKE - The Buckle, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 15
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $52.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $52.00
LOW: $52.00
MEDIAN: $52.00
CONSENSUS: $52.00
UPSIDE: 5.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.2% below fair value
Current Price $49.33
Bear Case $47.66 3.4% downside ($47.66 - $49.33) / $49.33 = -3.4% $4.14 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $59.58 20.8% upside ($59.58 - $49.33) / $49.33 = 20.8% $4.14 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $71.49 44.9% upside ($71.49 - $49.33) / $49.33 = 44.9% $4.14 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
4.14$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.58 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 106% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples