BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. logo BJ - BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 12
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $111.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $114.00
LOW: $109.00
MEDIAN: $111.50
CONSENSUS: $111.50
UPSIDE: 26.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 37.5% below fair value
Current Price $88.05
Bear Case $116.11 31.9% upside ($116.11 - $88.05) / $88.05 = 31.9% $4.44 × 28x P/E
Fair Value $140.99 60.1% upside ($140.99 - $88.05) / $88.05 = 60.1% $4.44 × 34x P/E
Bull Case $165.87 88.4% upside ($165.87 - $88.05) / $88.05 = 88.4% $4.44 × 40x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

34.0x
4.44$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (34x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $111.50 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $140.99 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $111.50 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 35% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples