Bill.com Holdings, Inc. logo BILL - Bill.com Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $56.00
CONSENSUS: $56.33
UPSIDE: 11.10%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 65.6% below fair value
Current Price $50.70
Bear Case $98.23 93.8% upside ($98.23 - $50.70) / $50.70 = 93.8% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $147.44 190.8% upside ($147.44 - $50.70) / $50.70 = 190.8% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $200.42 295.3% upside ($200.42 - $50.70) / $50.70 = 295.3% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 9.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) -1.0% vs our 13.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $147.44 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (32 analysts) $56.33
Analyst Range $50.00 – $60.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 162%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $56.33 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 162% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions