Bill.com Holdings, Inc. logo BILL - Bill.com Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $52.56 DETAILS
HIGH: $77.00
LOW: $42.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $52.56
UPSIDE: 17.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

High-Growth Software 80% confidence

Primary model: Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 52.7% below fair value
Current Price $44.90
Bear Case $49.55 10.4% upside ($49.55 - $44.90) / $44.90 = 10.4% 13% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair Value $94.90 111.4% upside ($94.90 - $44.90) / $44.90 = 111.4% 22% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull Case $147.74 229.0% upside ($147.74 - $44.90) / $44.90 = 229.0% 28% rev growth, 32% terminal margin

Adjust Assumptions

22.0%
28.0%
12.0%

Key Value Driver

Revenue growth (22%) × margin expansion to 28%

Terminal Value % of EV 58%
Implied Market Multiple 2.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.56 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $94.90 per share.

Warnings

Gross margin of 81% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $52.56 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 115% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
  • SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
  • Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep