Bill.com Holdings, Inc. logo BILL - Bill.com Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.56 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $52.00
MEDIAN: $56.00
CONSENSUS: $56.56
UPSIDE: 18.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 62.3% below fair value
Current Price $47.63
Bear Case $84.11 76.6% upside ($84.11 - $47.63) / $47.63 = 76.6% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $126.24 165.0% upside ($126.24 - $47.63) / $47.63 = 165.0% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $171.60 260.3% upside ($171.60 - $47.63) / $47.63 = 260.3% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 10.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 0.3% vs our 13.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $126.24 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (32 analysts) $56.56
Analyst Range $52.00 – $60.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 123%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $56.56 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 123% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions