BILL - Bill.com Holdings, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$52.67
DETAILS
HIGH:
$77.00
LOW:
$42.00
MEDIAN:
$50.00
CONSENSUS:
$52.67
UPSIDE:
45.74%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
High-Growth Software
80% confidence
Primary model: Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Adjust Assumptions
28.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (28%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
60%
Implied Market Multiple
2.1x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.67 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $123.64 per share.
Warnings
Gross margin of 81% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $52.67 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 193% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep