Biogen Inc. logo BIIB - Biogen Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 28
HOLD 19
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $212.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $260.00
LOW: $143.00
MEDIAN: $222.00
CONSENSUS: $212.00
UPSIDE: 9.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.1% below fair value
Current Price $193.76
Bear Case $176.88 8.7% downside ($176.88 - $193.76) / $193.76 = -8.7% $14.57 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $206.36 6.5% upside ($206.36 - $193.76) / $193.76 = 6.5% $14.57 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $235.84 21.7% upside ($235.84 - $193.76) / $193.76 = 21.7% $14.57 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
14.57$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $212.00 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $206.36 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 65%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples