Biogen Inc. logo BIIB - Biogen Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 31
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $243.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $300.00
LOW: $157.00
MEDIAN: $248.00
CONSENSUS: $243.60
UPSIDE: 9.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 4.0% above fair value
Current Price $221.50
Bear Case $182.62 17.6% downside ($182.62 - $221.50) / $221.50 = -17.6% $15.22 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $213.05 3.8% downside ($213.05 - $221.50) / $221.50 = -3.8% $15.22 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $243.49 9.9% upside ($243.49 - $221.50) / $221.50 = 9.9% $15.22 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
15.22$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $15.22, the base-case value is $213.05 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (49 analysts) $243.60
Analyst Range $157.00 – $300.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 13%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 72%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples