Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. logo BHRB - Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $74.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $74.00
LOW: $74.00
MEDIAN: $74.00
CONSENSUS: $74.00
UPSIDE: 5.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 64.0% below fair value
Current Price $70.47
Bear Case $178.76 153.7% upside ($178.76 - $70.47) / $70.47 = 153.7% ROTCE 11.3% → 3.65x TBV
Fair Value $195.95 178.1% upside ($195.95 - $70.47) / $70.47 = 178.1% ROTCE 15.1% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $195.95 178.1% upside ($195.95 - $70.47) / $70.47 = 178.1% ROTCE 17.3% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.1%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.44x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.1% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $48.99 tangible book, implying $195.95 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly