Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. logo BHRB - Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $74.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $74.00
LOW: $74.00
MEDIAN: $74.00
CONSENSUS: $74.00
UPSIDE: 17.97%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 69.7% below fair value
Current Price $62.73
Bear Case $189.18 201.6% upside ($189.18 - $62.73) / $62.73 = 201.6% ROTCE 11.3% → 3.65x TBV
Fair Value $207.37 230.6% upside ($207.37 - $62.73) / $62.73 = 230.6% ROTCE 15.1% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $207.37 230.6% upside ($207.37 - $62.73) / $62.73 = 230.6% ROTCE 17.3% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.1%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.21x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.1% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $51.84 tangible book, implying $207.37 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly