BGC Group, Inc logo BGC - BGC Group, Inc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.50
LOW: $11.50
MEDIAN: $11.50
CONSENSUS: $11.50
UPSIDE: 2.77%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 72.2% above fair value
Current Price $11.19
Bear Case $4.55 59.3% downside ($4.55 - $11.19) / $11.19 = -59.3% ROTCE 12.0% → 1.40x TBV
Fair Value $6.50 41.9% downside ($6.50 - $11.19) / $11.19 = -41.9% ROTCE 15.9% → 2.10x TBV
Bull Case $8.45 24.5% downside ($8.45 - $11.19) / $11.19 = -24.5% ROTCE 18.3% → 2.52x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.9%
9.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.9%) vs. cost of equity (9.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 5.47x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.9% vs. 9.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.10x on $2.05 tangible book, implying $6.50 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly