AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Saul Centers, Inc. as a Real Estate Investment Trust business and values it using P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag BFS as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Saul Centers, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for BFS comes from a P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Real Estate Investment Trust classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value BFS?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. BFS was classified as Real Estate Investment Trust and is valued using P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple, built from BFS's most recent reported fundamentals.

BFS - Saul Centers, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $43.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 35.3% below fair value

Current Price $33.27

Bear Case $41.66 25.2% upside ($41.66 - $33.27) / $33.27 = 25.2% $3.93 FFO × 12x

Fair Value $51.44 54.6% upside ($51.44 - $33.27) / $33.27 = 54.6% $3.93 FFO × 15x

Bull Case $61.21 84.0% upside ($61.21 - $33.27) / $33.27 = 84.0% $3.93 FFO × 18x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

15.0x

FFO per Share

3.93$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.93) × retail P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 8.5x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.93 FFO/share with a 15x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $51.44 per share. Dividend yield: 7.1%. DDM cross-check: $34.05.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $43.50

Analyst Range $43.50 – $43.50

Divergence from AlphaVal 18%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

⚠ Dividend yield of 7.1% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $34.05 (34% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify