Bank First Corporation logo BFC - Bank First Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $157.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $157.00
LOW: $157.00
MEDIAN: $157.00
CONSENSUS: $157.00
UPSIDE: 10.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.5% below fair value
Current Price $141.87
Bear Case $117.22 17.4% downside ($117.22 - $141.87) / $141.87 = -17.4% ROTCE 11.8% → 2.89x TBV
Fair Value $162.15 14.3% upside ($162.15 - $141.87) / $141.87 = 14.3% ROTCE 15.8% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $162.15 14.3% upside ($162.15 - $141.87) / $141.87 = 14.3% ROTCE 18.2% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.8%
6.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.5x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.8% vs. 6.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $40.54 tangible book, implying $162.15 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly