Bank First Corporation logo BFC - Bank First Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $157.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $157.00
LOW: $157.00
MEDIAN: $157.00
CONSENSUS: $157.00
UPSIDE: 7.58%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.5% below fair value
Current Price $145.94
Bear Case $124.95 14.4% downside ($124.95 - $145.94) / $145.94 = -14.4% ROTCE 11.8% → 3.10x TBV
Fair Value $161.29 10.5% upside ($161.29 - $145.94) / $145.94 = 10.5% ROTCE 15.8% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $161.29 10.5% upside ($161.29 - $145.94) / $145.94 = 10.5% ROTCE 18.2% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.8%
6.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.62x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.8% vs. 6.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $40.32 tangible book, implying $161.29 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly